THE CONVENIENT LIE: LAGOS FLOODING NEVER STARTED 50 YEARS AGO: AN INVESTIGATIVE ANALYSIS

 

“Flooding is not 50+ years old in Lagos; it is not science, and it is not history.”

 

For most of my adult life, I have lived in the Lekki axis, worked here, and studied the environment. So, it amazed me when an environmentalist made a bold statement and said it is science that “Flooding is 50 plus years old in Lagos.” I am sorry, this is not a fact but a convenient lie. Let’s dive deep into the rabbit hole of the "convenient lie." The idea that Lagos has been flooded for 50 years may offer a comforting narrative that paints the city in a bad light. But it's time to peel back the layers.

 

Flooding in Lagos and the Lekki Axis: A Historical Perspective, Causes, and Lessons for the Future

Lagos has always been a city defined by water, located on the Atlantic coast and surrounded by lagoons, creeks, wetlands, and rivers. The state has approximately 40% of its land area covered by water bodies, while this geography has made Lagos Nigeria's commercial capital and an important maritime hub, it has also made the city naturally susceptible to flooding. Before the rapid urban expansion of the 1990s and 2000s, flooding was mainly experienced in older low-lying communities such as Lagos Island, Iddo, Ebute Metta, Apapa, Mushin, Ajegunle, Agege, Surulere, Bariga, and Somolu. These areas were prone to seasonal flooding during periods of intense rainfall because many were originally wetlands or floodplains that had been developed without sufficient drainage infrastructure.

 

Unlike older parts of Lagos, much of the Lekki Peninsula remained sparsely populated until the late 1980s. Large areas consisted of mangrove forests, coastal wetlands, swamps, seasonal floodplains, sand barriers, and lagoons. Beginning in the 1990s, and accelerating after 2000, the Lekki corridor became one of Africa's fastest-growing urban development zones. Major investments included: Lekki Phase I, Ikate-Elegushi, Jakande, Agungi, Chevron Drive, Igbo-Efon, Orchid Road, Ikota, Ajah, Abraham Adesanya, Sangotedo, etc., where development often involved extensive sand-filling and land reclamation to create buildable land from wetlands.

 

Historically, the major flooding event that marks the turning point about flooding in Lekki and Lagos generally is the July 2012 flood event. This event occurred due to both inundation from the ocean and the heavy intensity of the rain for 4 four days. This single event marked a turning point in public awareness about Lagos flooding. So, saying Lagos has a 50-plus-year history of flooding is a lie, and I'm sorry, it is not science, and it is not history.

 

Why Flooding Persists in Lekki

It is very important to sometimes give credit to the state government; we cannot all sit down and write articles or give data without stating the basic fact about the flooding issues. Flooding in the Lekki axis is now driven by a combination of natural and human-induced factors: low-lying coastal topography, intense rainfall events, high groundwater levels, rising sea levels, loss of wetlands, land reclamation, encroachment on drainage rights-of-way, inadequate or incomplete drainage infrastructure, blocked drains due to waste disposal, rapid urban development outpacing infrastructure provision, etc.  This combination creates what researchers describe as compound flooding, where heavy rainfall coincides with high tides or coastal influences, making drainage much less effective.

 

Over the past decade, the State has expanded drainage infrastructure, increased desilting operations, installed pumping stations in flood-prone locations, enforced drainage setbacks, and intensified flood-risk monitoring. If the government is to fully enforce all actionable efforts on factors responsible for flooding in Lagos State. It is the same professionals, the media, and the general public who will say the government is insensitive. All issues will now be turned into a political instrument and ethnic connotation.  

 

Looking Ahead

Flooding in Lagos—and especially in the Lekki axis—cannot be attributed to a single cause. While climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme rainfall, urban development practices have amplified flood risk by reducing the landscape's natural ability to absorb and convey stormwater.

 

What The Science Says About Lagos Flooding Today

The science of Lagos flooding is not ambiguous; it points clearly to a set of interacting, anthropogenic drivers — most of which have intensified dramatically in the past twenty years, not the past fifty. Climate-induced flooding has become an annual event in Nigeria over the last ten years, and Lagos State has not been spared in any of these episodes. Ten years, not fifty! The IPCC has identified Lagos as one of the 50 cities globally most vulnerable to extreme sea levels, and projects ranked it 15th among port cities for future population exposure to flooding under 2070s climate scenarios — a projection that reflects accelerating climate change, not a geological constant that has always existed. Newly available Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) rainfall data support concerns over rising rainfall intensity in Lagos. Rainfall in Lagos is not only more frequent during the wet season — it is more intense per event. The storms that Lagos received in July 2024 and again in July 2026 delivered volumes of water in hours that the city's drainage infrastructure — even well-maintained and unobstructed — was never designed to handle. This is the climate change signal embedded in Lagos's flooding data, and it is getting stronger, not weaker. What this means is that with all our effort, the flash flood will still occur.

 

In July 2026, cities like Accra, Ghana, Nairobi, Kenya, and Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire, have witnessed flooding like Lagos and even recorded deaths. Nobody says the cities have been flooding for over 50 years because of one major natural event. Lagos has not been flooding like this for 50 years. In many of these locations, Lagos has not been flooding like this for 5 years. The trend line is new. The causes are traceable. The accountability is clear. The only thing missing is the professionals educating the general public about the global trend of events. We have to do better in our communication of environmental data.